A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
