🔗 Share this article

The most severe possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by researchers, including a scorching 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea levels. A separate possibility envisions a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy demand.

Possible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These consequences, some of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are seen as improbable but plausible. The researchers explained that these models filled a gap in planning that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have detailed should not be seen as certainties, but they are credible," said Nigel Arnell who directed the study. "The UK has been formulating policy lacking the frameworks to test against extreme possibilities. We've now supplied planners what they need to get ready for climate outcomes they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Extreme Weather Scenarios

A second set of dire projections maps the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than average, while precipitation could be triple normal levels.

The chance of the extreme scenarios occurring cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be enacted to address global warming and how the planet's climate will behave. This research was described as similar to national security risk assessments or stress tests for the banking sector.

Critical Scenario Elements

• Severe Heating: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation breaks down or if vicious cycles such as the tropical forests becoming a net carbon source unleash its enormous store of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heatwaves and dry spells plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to climate change. A complete failure beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and freshwater availability would be completely altered," noted Arnell.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

The worst-case scenarios could be applied to guide the development of long-term infrastructure, including expanded cities, energy plants and water management networks. Awareness of these future hazards could also speed the push to cut fossil fuel emissions.

The study created the extreme models using a mix of past data and records, digital projections and climate physics. These outcomes omit broader worldwide issues including the devastation of food supplies and resource wars.

This work was commissioned as part of a national risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have stated that insufficient focus was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

Official experts has said that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the dangers for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "insufficient" by certain experts.

An official statement commented: "The climate emergency is at the core of our national priorities, both adapting for the future and establishing itself as a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the effects."